A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in universities but very few politicians or activists want to engage with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. Each writes two essays that strive for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates encompass national emblems, duties, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has got something to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
